Course Syllabus

1)    Review Stock numbers P/E and PEG

1.    Earnings and whisper numbers, Future + Revenue(top line) + Earnings/share (bottom line)

2.    Stock buybacks and increase or decrease in debt.

3.    Volume

4.    Dividend

5.    Sectors of the stock market (11)

·      Utilities (Energy companies)

·      Consumer staples (Costco, Chlorox, Coke)

·      IT (Paypal, HP, Visa, Xerox, Qualcomm)

·      Health Care (Biogen, CVS, Johnson &Johnson)

·      Energy (Exxon mobile, Chevron)

·      Materials (Dow chemical, Newport mining,International paper)

·      Industrials (GE, Fedex, 3M)

·      Communication Services (AT&T, Viacom, Google, Netflix)

·      Consumer Discretionary (Macys, L Brands,EBAY)

·      Financials (Etrade, Citibank, Metlife)

·      Real Estate (Marriott, Boston Properties, Public storage)

Picking stocks

·      Firstly focus on:

·      Risk

·      Trading or long term hold or dividendincome/growth

·      How much of your total $ you are investing

·      Momentum and Value based stocks

·      Strategy 1: Catch an industry trend early

·      5G

·      Payments

·      AI and self-driving cars

·      Athletic wear

·      Electric vehicles

·      Green businesses

·      If you cannot explain why you are buying a stock– do not buy it

Expense Sheet Discussion

Picking stocks

·      Strategy 2: Dogs of the dow

·      Strategy 3: Guru Focus

Picking stocks

1) Strategy 4: Stocks that have gone through problems (Disasters)

•  Big disasters:

- Understand what happened

- Will the company survive this

- Will the dividend survive

- When will the recovery happen

- Good management

•  Small disasters:

- Making money with covered calls

When to buy and when to sell a stock

Popular Indicators:

1)    Trend: parabolic SAR, ichimoku kinko hyo and MACD

2)    Momentum indicators for picking tops and bottoms: RSI, stochastic, ADX average directional index and ichimokukinko hyo.

3)    Volume indicators for how strong the move is: On-balance volume, chaukin money flow, klinger volume oscillator.

4)    Volatility for how much the price is changing:Bollinger bands

Relative Strength Index

The relative strength index (RSI) has at least three major uses. The indicator moves between zero and 100, plotting recent price gains versus recent price losses.The RSI levels therefore help in gauging momentum and trend strength. 

The most basic use of an RSI is as an overbought and oversold indicator. WhenRSI moves above 70, the asset is considered overbought and could decline. When the RSI is below 30, the asset is oversold and could rally. RSI = 100 – (100 / (1 + (Average GainDuring Up Periods / Average Loss During Down Periods)))

MACD

The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator helps traders see the trend direction, as well as the momentum of that trend. It also provides a number of trade signals.

When the MACDis above zero, the price is in an upward phase. If the MACD is below zero, it has entered a bearish period.

The indicator is composed of two lines: the MACD line and a signal line, which moves slower. When MACD crosses below the signal line, it indicates that the price is falling. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, the price is rising. 

On Balance Volume

Use the on-balance volume indicator (OBV) to measure the positive and negative flow of volume in a security over time.

The indicator is a running total of up volume minus down volume. Up volume is how much volume there is on a day when the price rallied. Down volume is the volume on day when the price falls. Each day volume is added or subtracted from the indicator based on whether the price went higher or lower. When OBV is rising ,it shows that buyers are willing to step in and push the price higher. When OBV is falling, the selling volume is outpacing buying volume, which indicates lower prices. In this way, it acts like a trend confirmation tool. If price and OBV are rising, that helps indicate a continuation of the trend. Traders who use OBV also watch for divergence. This occurs when the indicator and price are going in different directions. If the price is rising but OBV is falling, that could indicate that the trend is not backed by strong buyers and could soon reverse.

1.    Recap on retirement:

a.    Income needed = 80% of last earnings

b.    Money needed for income is Income/0.04

c.     Better way is to estimate actual expenses

d.    Inflation: https://www.jackson.com/your-financial-future/calculators-and-tools.html

2.    Actual expenses to before tax calculation:

a.     https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tools/calculators/taxcaster/

Earnings = 180K                                                 Tax = 34377

SocialSecurity = 60K                                        Tax = 0

SocialSecurity = 60K               IRA=120K          Tax = 23397

SocialSecurity = 60K               Interest=120K   Tax = 23397

SocialSecurity = 60K               Dividend=120K   Tax = 12283

SocialSecurity = 60K               Trading=120K       Tax=23397

SocialSecurity = 60K               Rental = 120K     Tax = 23397

SocialSecurity = 60K                Dividend=60K     Tax = 1818       Need=60K from savings

b.    SocialSecurity=$60K      Dividends=$50K       Tax=$1223

c.     SocialSecurity=$50K      Dividends=$50K       Tax=$798

d.    SocialSecurity = $50K    Dividends=$100K     Tax=$7066

e.    SocialSecurity=$50K      Dividends=$120K     Tax=$10066

f.     SocialSecurity=$60K      Dividends=$120K     Tax=$12985

g.    Single SocialSecurity=$30K   Dividends=$20K  Tax=$0

3.    Social Security: https://www.ssa.gov/myaccount/

a.    PIA Number: Benefits at full age of retirement i.e. 67

                                              i.     Goodestimate = 3000 for primary income, 2000 for spouse

b.    Optimize your SSN:   http://opensocialsecurity.com

                                              i.     PIAnumbers

4.    How much do I need to have in savings:

a.    Income Needed = Income_Estimated_From_Expences – SocialSecurityBenefit

b.    Use the 0.04 rule on Income Needed

c.     Rohit’s math:

                                             i.     @65let us say one needs $60,000 income outside of Social Security

                                             ii.     20yrs money needed = 60,000 x 20 = 1.2M (if not invested)

                                            iii.     Ifone puts it in index funds with 6% average return the number needed would be much less.  ($700,000) ($820,000 with 2%inflation)  https://www.thecalculatorsite.com/finance/calculators/compoundinterestcalculator.php

5.    Is your child on track:

a.    At the minimum numbers:

b.    30 = 1x     35 = 2x     40=3x    45=4x    50=5x    55=6x     60=7x    65=8x

c.     Fidelity:   30=1x     40=2x      50=4x      60=6x       67=8x

                                              i.      

Day X

Medicare

Terminology – Deductable (1st), Copay ($),Co-insurance (%)

1)    Medicare has 4 parts

a.    Part A: Deals with Hospitalization (Free)

b.    Part B: Deals with Outpatient visits and lab work. (Premium>= $134   AGI 2yrs ago 170K)

c.     Part C: Medicare Advantage through a private company (Similar cost to Part B)

d.    Part D: Drugs (around $34)

2)    Enrolling in medicare means you need to make 1of 3 irreversible choices

a.    Original medicare (Part A, B)   - Freedom of choice, Unlimited exposure

b.    Medicare Advantage – limited choice, Limited exposure

c.     Original medicare + medicap (or medicare supplement) – tough to change supplement.

Rohit recommends (c) + Part D.  Choose supplement in the first 6 months after medicare starts.

3)    Signing up for medicare:

a.    You are signing up for Part A, B

b.    Medicare.gov cost estimate for Part B

c.     Part B billing is quarterly or directly throughSocial Security.

d.    7 month window to enroll in medicare +-3 months of your birthday month.

e.    Medicare starts on the 1st day of the birthday month.

f.     If you are already taking Social Security you will be auto enrolled in medicare.

g.    You can opt out from medicare part B if you have employer health coverage. You can enroll in Part B when your coverage ends.

h.    You sign up for medicare through Social Security(SSA.gov) or make an appointment.

4)    Medicare Supplement Plans

a.    No annual enrollment – so changing is hard.

b.    Rohit’s recommendation is Plan G if the price is right.

Day X:

Consolidation of Finances and Information

Running Greenleaf

Miscellaneous Topics

1)    Margin accounts

2)    Stock Price and Splits

3)    Futures

4)    VIX

5)    Short squeeze

a.    http://

6)    Insiders

7)    Segments of the industry

8)    Dividend surfing

9)    Dollar cost averaging

10)  Collaring

11)  MeltUP

12)  Company breaks up into two

13)  Effect of currency

14)  Stocks vs Real Estate

15)  What do you look for in a financial advisor

16)  Trusts

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